




A proposed 10-day US-Iran ceasefire has reversed a sharp oil rally, but a Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia is keeping traders from fully exhaling.

Oil prices reversed a sharp rally and dipped below $87 a barrel on Monday as a reported 10-day U.S.-Iran cease-fire proposal collided with news of a Houthi blockade against Saudi Arabia. Stock futures wobbled in sympathy, exposing how fragile the current pricing of Gulf risk has become.

U.S. Central Command reports two American personnel died in Iranian drone and missile attacks on a military facility in Jordan.

As earnings season opens, investors are pricing artificial intelligence capital spending as the dominant force behind equity gains, not energy markets. The shift raises questions about how durable this year's rally really is if AI investment slows.

Less than 24 hours after a tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump told reporters in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran is over, following US strikes on more than 80 targets inside the country. Oil spiked as much as 8 percent, the Dow dropped more than 600 points at its low, and the Treasury Department revoked its authorization for Iran to sell crude on the global market, all in the space of a single trading day.

A fully laden LNG carrier owned by a Qatari state shipping company was struck near the Omani coast on Tuesday while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, reviving fears about the durability of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Crude oil rose above 69 dollars a barrel on the news, yet it remains near its lowest level since February, because a supply glut from OPEC and the Gulf has grown large enough to absorb a shock that would have sent prices soaring four months ago.

The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate held at 6.39 percent this morning, still nearly half a point above where it sat before the Iran war began. A peace deal was supposed to bring relief through lower oil prices. Instead a hawkish Federal Reserve and inflation stuck above 4 percent are keeping rates locked in place, and most forecasters now say relief will not arrive until 2027 at the earliest.

The administration picked July 4, Americas 250th birthday, as the symbolic signing date for the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill Citi and Standard Chartard say could send Bitcoin toward six figures. The bill is not close. It still needs seven Democratic votes it does not have, an ethics fight over the Trump family crypto income it cannot resolve, and floor time the Senate does not have before its own August recess.