




A fully laden LNG carrier owned by a Qatari state shipping company was struck near the Omani coast on Tuesday while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, reviving fears about the durability of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Crude oil rose above 69 dollars a barrel on the news, yet it remains near its lowest level since February, because a supply glut from OPEC and the Gulf has grown large enough to absorb a shock that would have sent prices soaring four months ago.

The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate held at 6.39 percent this morning, still nearly half a point above where it sat before the Iran war began. A peace deal was supposed to bring relief through lower oil prices. Instead a hawkish Federal Reserve and inflation stuck above 4 percent are keeping rates locked in place, and most forecasters now say relief will not arrive until 2027 at the earliest.

The administration picked July 4, Americas 250th birthday, as the symbolic signing date for the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill Citi and Standard Chartard say could send Bitcoin toward six figures. The bill is not close. It still needs seven Democratic votes it does not have, an ethics fight over the Trump family crypto income it cannot resolve, and floor time the Senate does not have before its own August recess.

The team of Iran is competing in the United States while under a travel ban, a ticket freeze, and same day entry rules, even as President Trump questioned whether its players should be allowed to travel at all. On the same July 4 weekend that two World Cup stadiums are hosting Americas 250th birthday ceremonies, the tournament FIFA calls the greatest event humanity has ever seen is also becoming the clearest picture yet of how deep the Iran conflict has reached into ordinary life.

Four months after Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a US-Israeli airstrike, Iran begins a weeklong state funeral Saturday that overlaps with America's 250th birthday. His successor, son Mojtaba Khamenei, has deep IRGC ties, no public record of Western engagement, and is already a declared assassination target for Israel's defense minister.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data this morning — moved to Thursday from Friday due to the Independence Day holiday — with Wall Street expecting roughly 115,000 new jobs and a Fed that is now debating rate hikes rather than cuts. Here is every number that matters and why.

Gold set an all-time record of $5,589.38 per ounce in January 2026 after gaining 64% in a single year, and J.P. Morgan now forecasts it reaches $6,000 by year-end — but the most important driver is not inflation or the Iran war. It's China quietly buying more gold every month than most countries hold in total reserves.

The SAVE plan is terminated, Parent PLUS loans face new borrowing caps, and over 7 million borrowers must choose a new repayment plan within 90 days — all starting July 1, 2026, in the most sweeping overhaul to federal student lending in decades.